Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently weaker than ERA5 average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to GEFS-mean) 5 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2026-01-17 06:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 0%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 29.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: -14.5 m/s 1985 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 62.6 m/s 2016