Polar vortex status

The SPV is currently weaker than ERA5 average and is forecasted to remain weaker than average (according to GEFS-mean) 10 of 31 members have stronger vortex than average at the last forecast step (2025-10-02 18:00:00) The SSW probability in GEFS is: 0%. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 6.2 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 4.1 m/s 2014 Strongest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA5 record for todays date is: 12.4 m/s 2005